Shake-maps and rapid loss estimation (JRA3)

Goal: to develop the capability to rapidly compute maps of earthquake shaking (Shake-maps) and loss estimation for the Euro-Med region. Coordinator: Mustafa Erdik, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), Istanbul, Turkey.

Shakemaps
A strong cooperation with the USGS (Dave Wald) and the SAFER project has been set up in realizing European shakemaps. Operational ShakeMap installations are currently being realized in Romania (NIEP), Italy (INGV), Turkey (KOERI) and Switzerland (ETHZ). 

Rapid Loss estimation
JRA3 has developed a methodology and software, ELER, for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses throughout the Euro-Mediterranean region. Recently, a new version (v 2.0) of the ELER software has been released. The multi-level methodology developed together with researchers from Imperial College, NORSAR and ETH-Zurich is capable of incorporating regional variability and sources of uncertainty stemming from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships. Although primarily intended for post-earthquake rapid loss estimation, the routine is also equally capable of developing scenario earthquake based loss assessments.

Figure 1. Rapid loss (building damage) estimation (left) and casulatiy estimation (right) for the September 7, 1999 Athens M=5.9 earthquake. This is an ELER level 1 simulation (more details, see ELER leaflet).

Figure 2. Rapid loss (building damage) estimation for a 'credible worst case scenario' of an M=7.5 earthquake near Istanbul, Turkey. Building damage: 1) slightly damaged buildings; 2) moderately damaged buildings; 3) extensively damaged buildings; 4) completely damaged buildings. This is the result of ELER level 2 simulation (more details, see ELER leaflet).